Mega Expert tells other experts: You’re probably wrong

Alex Hernandez is reviewing Nobel-winner Dan Kahneman on Dropout Nation:

For three chapters in Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman argues that professional expertise is largely an illusion:

• Expert judgment is notoriously unreliable.

• Statistical predictions are consistently more accurate than expert ones in a wide variety of fields.  Professionals with strong short-term recognition rarely recognize their own limits in making long-term predictions.

• Expert judgment can only be acquired in stable, predictable environments where professionals learn patterns from prolonged practice and ample feedback.

….Khaneman notes that his research is met with hostility and disbelief by professionals — and then usually ignored.

-Guestblogger Mike Goldstein